The world’s deadliest outbreak during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A proposed analytical approach to estimate Daily Excess mortality rates in Ecuador
Artículo Materias > Biomedicina Universidad Internacional Iberoamericana México > Investigación > Artículos y libros Abierto Inglés Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has been deadly globally; however, the most lethal outbreak worldwide occurred in Ecuador. Our work aims to highlight the pandemic's impact on the most affected countries worldwide due to the pandemic in terms of excess deaths per capita and per day. Methodology: An ecological study of all-cause mortality recorded in Ecuador during the year 2020. To calculate the total excess death relative to the historical average for the same dates in 2017, 2018 and 2019. A Poisson fitting analysis was used to identify trends on officially recorded all-caused deaths and those attributed to COVID-19. A bootstrapping technique based on central tendency measures was used to emulate the sampling distribution of our expected deaths estimator by simulating the data generation and model fitting processes on a daily basis since the first confirmed case was reported worldwide. Results: In Ecuador, during 2020, 115,070 deaths were totally reported and 42,453 were catalogued as excessive mortality when comparing with the last 3-years average (2017-2019). Ecuador is the country with the highest recorded excess mortality in the world within the shortest timespan. In one single day, Ecuador recorded 1,120 deaths (6/100,000), while Peru had 740 deaths (2/100,000) and Brazil 4,249 deaths (2/100,000). This value represents an additional 408% of the expected fatalities. The province with the highest number of excess deaths was Santa Elena on Ecuador's coast, with more than 154% increment versus previous years. Conclusions: Adjusting for population size and time, the hardest-hit country due to the COVID-19 pandemic was Ecuador. The mortality excess rate shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread rapidly in the country, especially in the coastal province of Santa Elena and Guayas. Our results and the new proposed methodology could help to address the actual death toll situation during the early phase of the pandemic in Ecuador. metadata Fernández, Raúl; Vásconez-González, Jorge; Simbaña-Rivera, Katherine; Lister, Alex; Landazuri, Samanta; Castillo, Diana; Izquierdo Condoy, Juan Sebastian y Ortiz-Prado, Esteban mail SIN ESPECIFICAR (2022) The world’s deadliest outbreak during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A proposed analytical approach to estimate Daily Excess mortality rates in Ecuador. SSRN Electronic Journal. ISSN 1556-5068
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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has been deadly globally; however, the most lethal outbreak worldwide occurred in Ecuador. Our work aims to highlight the pandemic's impact on the most affected countries worldwide due to the pandemic in terms of excess deaths per capita and per day. Methodology: An ecological study of all-cause mortality recorded in Ecuador during the year 2020. To calculate the total excess death relative to the historical average for the same dates in 2017, 2018 and 2019. A Poisson fitting analysis was used to identify trends on officially recorded all-caused deaths and those attributed to COVID-19. A bootstrapping technique based on central tendency measures was used to emulate the sampling distribution of our expected deaths estimator by simulating the data generation and model fitting processes on a daily basis since the first confirmed case was reported worldwide. Results: In Ecuador, during 2020, 115,070 deaths were totally reported and 42,453 were catalogued as excessive mortality when comparing with the last 3-years average (2017-2019). Ecuador is the country with the highest recorded excess mortality in the world within the shortest timespan. In one single day, Ecuador recorded 1,120 deaths (6/100,000), while Peru had 740 deaths (2/100,000) and Brazil 4,249 deaths (2/100,000). This value represents an additional 408% of the expected fatalities. The province with the highest number of excess deaths was Santa Elena on Ecuador's coast, with more than 154% increment versus previous years. Conclusions: Adjusting for population size and time, the hardest-hit country due to the COVID-19 pandemic was Ecuador. The mortality excess rate shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread rapidly in the country, especially in the coastal province of Santa Elena and Guayas. Our results and the new proposed methodology could help to address the actual death toll situation during the early phase of the pandemic in Ecuador.
| Tipo de Documento: | Artículo |
|---|---|
| Palabras Clave: | Excess deaths, COVID-19, Ecuador, Statistical bootstrapping, death toll |
| Clasificación temática: | Materias > Biomedicina |
| Divisiones: | Universidad Internacional Iberoamericana México > Investigación > Artículos y libros |
| Depositado: | 25 May 2023 23:30 |
| Ultima Modificación: | 25 May 2023 23:30 |
| URI: | https://repositorio.unini.edu.mx/id/eprint/7274 |
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